STV for York and East Yorkshire

Oh and Harrogate too.

I seem to be tackling a bigger area with this post. The length and content of these posts is mostly determined by how much I can fit on one map and still be clear.

Generally speaking, I think 4MP constituencies work best in STV, but in this project I’m guided to 3, 4 or 5’s based on what fits.

And so it is we have a 5 MP Constituency. The other two on this map require less explanation. Hull will include the two small areas outside the city currently in Hull seats

Harrogate, Selby & York (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Harrogate and Knaresborough; Selby; Wetherby and Easingwold; York Central; York Outer)

Hull (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Kingston upon Hull East; Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham;  Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice)

East Yorkshire (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Beverley and Holderness;  Bridlington and The Wolds; Goole and Pocklington)

The Geography

My decision to have one 5 MP constituency combining Harrogate, Selby and York really comes down to the way the Boundaries Commission distributed the remaining bits of Leeds and their straggling new Wetherby seat. The other two STV constituencies here are more obvious

The Politics

I’d expect the 5 MPs in the first of these to be spread around the Parties. At present there are 3 Labour, 1 Conservative and 1 Liberal Democrat, but if the same constituencies had been fought in 2019, the Conservatives would have held 4 but the boundaries in the area were different.

The Liberal Democrats probably couldn’t hope for more than one, based on their strength in Harrogate and local support in York. Labour and Conservatives would be distressed not to get one and would hope for two, and of course, right now Reform are in the mix. The Greens probably didn’t have enough votes here in 2024 to suggest they could win a seat, but again, the proviso, that under STV, there isn’t the same squeeze on small parties

In Hull, Labour hold all three current constituencies, but not with dramatic vote shares. In city elections, the Liberal Democrats have been doing very well lately but that hasn’t transferred over the the General Election. Instead Reform gained some comfortable second places. Under STV they would be well placed to take one of the three seats. Labour would start favourite for the other two, one safely, one under competition, and that could be a target for the other three parties. The Liberal democrat strength at local level could make them favourites.

In 2019, the Conservatives would have taken at least two of the East Yorkshire seats, but that much more in doubt now. One for sure, but the other two would be up for grabs with maybe Labour, Reform and a second Conservative battling it out for the other two

As I write these predictions, I am aware they are very much finger in the air jobs. It really depends on which party voters favour for their second choices. Do Reform have support outside their main base? That is something that has not been tested.

Another factor in Yorkshire is a grouping called ‘The Yorkshire Party’ While I don’t imagine they could win an MP, under STV we could see what their true level of support could be. For now, someone voting for the Yorkshire Party does so to register an opinion but forfeits the chance to decide between two front runners. Under STV, they could do both

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Of all these areas, Hull provides us with the musical interlude this time