STV for Worcestershire, Herefordshire

and the rest of Warwickshire

Given the number of areas I’m looking at in this post, I almost called it ‘STV for Archers country’ because Ambridge is supposedly around here. But I didn’t - well I don’t even listen to the programme.

This is an area of middle England I think it’s hard to pin down - Is it Birmingham hinterland? Is it West Country? I’m pretty sure its cider country.

We have the rest of Warwickshire, with a castle, a spa and the home of Shakespeare. Worcestershire and Herefordshire were joined together for a while before they were split again, to the relief of locals - But the latter only qualifies for 2 MPs so I fear I must join them again, at least in part

South Warwickshire (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Kenilworth and Southam; Stratford-on-Avon; Warwick and Leamington)

Worcestershire East (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Bromsgrove; Droitwich and Evesham; Redditch; Wyre Forest)

Herefordshire and Worcestershire West (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Hereford and South Herefordshire; North Herefordshire; Worcester; West Worcestershire)

The Geography

As mentioned in the last post, the shape of Warwickshire after the exclusion of Coventry and the other parts now in West Midlands rather makes my choices for me. Also the Boundaries commission has created another ‘island’ constituency - Warwick and Leamington is completely surrounded by another - A similar thing is found in York. My STV plan joins them together and adds Shakespeare Country

The Eastern half of Worcestershire is more urban in the north, where part New Town Redditch, Kidderminster and Bromsgrove feel more in Birmingham’s orbit. Further south is more rural. The long north-south constituencies again give me limited choices

The city of Worcester probably fits more naturally into the East, but I place it in the West to equalise numbers. West Worcestershire shares the beautiful Malvern Hills with Herefordshire so perhaps it’s not a bad fit.

The Politics

This area was a sea of blue in 2019 with just a red island at Warwick and Leamington. The Conservatives have held on to six of the ten constituencies they held, rather disguising the fact that their vote collapsed to about half of what it was in many places and their survival points to how far ahead they had been. A share of more than 60% across a 4 MP STV constituency would have made them competitive for a 3rd MP. On 2024 vote share, one MP in each of these three is more likely.

Taking my STV constituencies from the east, STV would most likely have given the same outcome as FPTP in South Warwickshire - one MP each for Lab, Con and LD. The Liberal Democrat success in Stratford was one I wasn’t expecting, but they that gave them a healthy majority there and they put up a good show next door in Kenilworth so gaining an MP out of the 3 seems more likely than hopeful. The two large parties would share the other two. The Reform UK vote isn’t quite up to their national average here, and in a constituency with just 3 MPs its harder for the party coming fourth to break through. If their vote transfers to the Conservatives, that party’s one MP will be more secure.

In East Worcestershire, the Conservatives still hold three of the four FPTP constituencies but they wouldn’t achieve that under STV. Their vote stands at just a third in three of them, a little higher in Droitwich/Evesham. They would hold one for sure and be very competitive for a second. Labour’s vote is between 22 to 34 %, which should get them an MP. For any more they would be dependent on early eliminations of the Liberal Democrats and Greens. Reform UK are third in each of these, and they would be targeting one MP.

If the Liberal Democrat gain in Stratford was an unexpected triumph, the big political earthquake in the region came in Herefordshire where the Greens gained an MP from fourth place in what had been a mega safe Conservative seat. I’d need to look into the local circumstances to understand it. Their vote in the other three parts of my STV seat isn’t negligible but they’d need to put the campaigning in to ensure their one MP would hold on under STV.

And here lies a paradox of STV. Smaller Parties would not need as many votes to get elected members, and that alone would make it easier to motivate a vote with the ‘wasted vote’ argument laid to rest. but they wold have to spread their resources over a wider area.

As for the 4 MPs to be elected here under STV, a four way split is a distinct possibility. The Conservatives may hold two of the seats now but nowhere is their vote much about a third. They would get 1 MP. Labour won with 40% in Worcester and seem to have turned around the Lib Dem vote in Hereford that used to win that town but they are weak elsewhere. Reform score in the teens percent here. It would be a very competitive constituency

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For our musical interlude, I go for my favourite song with a Shakespearian theme. Look, I could have gone for the Archer’s theme