STV for the Tyne & Wear

The North East is the smallest of the English regions based on population, much of which lines by the banks of the rivers Tyne and Wear; Newcastle, Sunderland and Gateshead. As with other regions, there is some crossing of boundaries, and part of Gateshead borough and a sliver of Newcastle are not included here.

With that proviso, I stick best I can to Council areas, though North and South Tyneside are consumed into other areas.

Gateshead (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Gateshead Central and Whickham, Jarrow and Gateshead East; Washington and Gateshead South)

Newcastle and Tyneside North (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West; Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend; Newcastle upon Tyne North; Tynemouth)

Sunderland and Tyneside South (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Houghton and Sunderland South; South Shields; Sunderland Central)

The Geography

Sticking to the current Westminster constituencies means my Gateshead differs significantly from the Council area of the same name. Washington (from Sunderland) and Jarrow (from South Tyneside) are included, but Blaydon is not.

For Newcastle, more rural areas of Newcastle near the airport are not included, and neither is an inland section of North Tyneside borough.

The Politics

In the 2024 election, Labour won every seat in this area, with vote shares between 45% and 50%. However, there was some variety in who came second and third. In parts of Tyneside, the Conservatives placed second, but in other areas, they were pushed into fourth by the Greens. Reform UK also made a respectable showing throughout the region. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, despite decent council results in Newcastle and parts of Sunderland, didn’t transfer that success to the general election due to limited campaigning.

Based on the 2024 results, Labour should be confident of securing at least 2 of the 4 Newcastle seats and one seat in each of the other two areas. They will likely be competitive for a second—and possibly a third—seat in Newcastle. Reform UK would likely be favorites for the remaining seats, while the Conservatives, at least in a more typical election year, should have a chance to take a seat in Newcastle, particularly in Tynemouth where their support has been strong.

However, as with all my predictions, voting patterns could change under STV. In this region, the Greens have started taking solid third places, so under STV, there might be a stronger opportunity for them to win a seat as well.

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This really isn’t my favourite Lindisfarne song, but it’s probably the most appropriate.. just be pleased this isn’t the version with Paul Gascoigne.