STV for the Rural North East

That being the rest of County Durham and Northumbria

The North East is the smallest of England’s regions in terms of population but the area stretches to the North and West some way, which makes it easier for me to show in two maps.

Durham West (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bishop Auckland; Blaydon and Consett; City of Durham; North Durham)

Northumberland (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Blyth and Ashington; Cramlington and Killingworth; Hexham; North Northumberland)

The Geography

Both of these STV constituencies cover a large area though not as large as my suggestion in North Yorkshire. In the case of Durham West, this is down to the current Bishop’s Auckland. The other three constituent parts are of smaller area and cover a number of places from the City of Durham itself to Chester-Le-Street, Consett and Blaydon, which is part of Gateshead Borough.

For Northumberland, two of the current constituencies cover a large area, the other two are smaller and based on the communities just north of Newcastle. This is the areas that gave us the Charlton brothers.

The Politics

In the 2024 election, all these constituencies elected Labour MPs, although in a couple of cases, the winning candidate received less than 40% of the vote due to divided opposition. This suggests Labour would secure 1 MP in each constituency and be in a strong position to win a second.

Reform UK garnered around 20% of the vote across both areas—just shy of what's needed to secure 1 MP per constituency. Whether they succeed would depend on second-preference transfers under STV.

The Conservatives held 3 of these 8 constituencies before the 2024 election, and one, Hexham, is a seat they rarely lose. Any significant recovery by the party could see them make gains in these constituencies.

North Northumberland, previously known as Berwick-upon-Tweed, was the seat of Lib Dem veteran Alan Beith. This suggests that, free from the constraints of FPTP, there are potential votes for all parties here.

However, as with all my predictions, it's important to remember that, without the need for tactical voting under STV, voting patterns could shift significantly.

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We can’t leave Northumbria without input from these sisters