Sussex may be one Cricket team but it’s been two counties for a while and now two counties plus Brighton and Hove as their own authority.
They get one post though because there’s an STV constituency that stretches over both and because I was able to fit them on one map.
Brighton and Hove (To elect 3 MPs covering the constituencies of Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven; Brighton Pavilion; Hove and Portslade)
Sussex East (To elect 5 MPs Bexhill and Battle; Eastbourne; Hastings and Rye; Lewes; Sussex Weald )
Sussex Mid (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Crawley; East Grinstead and Uckfield; Horsham; Mid Sussex)
Sussex West (To elect 5 MPs covering the constituencies of Arundel and South Downs; Bognor Regis and Littlehampton; Chichester; East Worthing and Shoreham; Worthing West)
Geography
The three Brighton and Hove constituencies were a little undersized so the recent review added the town of Peacehaven, so by my rules that remains in ‘Brighton and Hove’. Portslade is added to the Hove name but that was also in that constituency, which has probably lost the distinction of being the shortest name.
East Grinstead and Uckfield is the one current FPTO constituency that crosses the East-West boundary. All the other parts of my ‘Mid’ do come from the ‘West’ county. They are areas well back from the coast. An alternative name might be ‘North Sussex’
The rest of my scheme is easy to describe. East Sussex goes into East; the rest of West Sussex goes into ‘West’
Politics
Brighton is famed for being the first success of the Green Party, and given their strong showing in the other two parts of my Brighton and Hove STV region, they can be confident of continuing that here. Labour would pick up one of the other two, but the third would be anyone’s guess. The Conservatives have pockets of strength and Peacehaven probably adds to that. This is one of Reforms weaker areas and the Lib Dem vote here has been squeezed since the Greens growth here; in some elections standing down. Under STV that isn’t necessary.
The rest of the county though brings the party success, especially in weak Conservative years. When I look at the 2024 election figures for East Sussex, I do question why I’m trying to make predictions for STV. In Hastings the Lib Dem vote is squeezed in favour of Labour; In Eastbourne and Lewes it would be fair to guess the reverse has happened. Int the two large rural seats, The Lib Dems got a good second place in one, but were nowhere in the other.
This is because FPTP leads voters to see who is strong and not strong in their area, and change their voting preferences accordingly. All the evidence for East Sussex says that in good years for them, the Conservatives would win two, maybe even 3 of the 5 MPs here, but in other years there is some hope of at least 1 MP for everyone.
In the Western half, the Conservative vote held up inland in the Arundel constituency - well, relatively, they still lost 1/3 - but collapsed on the coast. Both halves of Worthing were lost and Bognor held because the opposition split. Chichester went Lib Dem to a degree that amazed this party member.
The picture is similar to the eastern side; in 2019, The conservatives could well have taken 3 of the 5 Mps. This time, it would be one for them, one to Labour. The Lib Dems would be hopeful of one, for sure, and Reform, who are just below their national average, might win one. The rest would be up for grabs on second preferences.
‘Mid’ has one part untypical of the whole; Crawley’s voting patterns are more like New Towns to north of London like Harlow and Hemel Hempstead - a comfortable Labour gain this time in what is usually a close main party battle. But in the rest of this STV constituency, we saw two Lib Dem gains and a second place. Whether that would be enough to win two seats here under STV its hard to say given their weakness in Crawley is hard to say. With 2nd preferences, possibly they would. Reform UK are not as strong here in what was quite a ‘Remain’ area. Labour and Conservatives would get the other two. Well, probably. Who knows with different voting patterns?
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Given that I’m writing about Change, what other song from a Sussex band could I use here?