STV for Suffolk
I probably know less about Suffolk than any other English county. A close friend lived for a few months in the very attractive small town of Lavenham, and one stay with him, and the one time I saw Ipswich play at home are the only two visits I can remember,
So on that note, on with the analysis
Ipswich and Suffolk Coastal (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Central Suffolk and North Ipswich; Ipswich; Lowestoft; Suffolk Coastal)
Suffolk Inland (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket; South Suffolk; Waveney Valley; West Suffolk)
The Geography
Suffolk has the population for nearly 8 MPs, which is made up to 8 by crossing the Norfolk Border with the Waveney Valley seat. That means it can be divided 4 and 4, and then my division was a matter of reassembling Ipswich because parts of that town are in other constituencies. I could then have swapped Lowestoft and South Suffolk the other way round but decided to have a coastal and inland STV constituency, to match Norfolk.
The Politics
The Conservatives dominated Suffolk politics in 2019, and even under STV they’d have taken 2, perhaps even 3, from each half.
With their vote halving just about everywhere in 2024, they would have been reduced to 1 in each half. In the coastal Constituency, Labour now hold three of the 4 parts but only in Ipswich did they win over 40%, so they too might be stretched to win 2 of the 4, because Reform UK got a solid vote throughout and in places the Greens and Lib Dems got to 10% and would possibly campaign harder under STV. The 4th place would certainly come down to transfers.
The Inland seat is made even more interesting because the cross border seat is one of the Green’s surprise triumphs, and that party got a decent vote in the other three quarters - enough at least to suggest with more campaigning they would elect an MP here. My prediction here, with all the usual riders about people voting differently, is for 4 MPs to different colours to be elected here; Green, Blue, Red and Reform.
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So here it is, I’m not a big fan of this guy’s music but there’s no doubt he’s the biggest start from this part of the world