STV for Stoke and Staffordshire
(Or most of it)
We move just south of Cheshire and into the West Midlands region. These regions aren’t my creation, of course—at one time, they were constituencies for UK elections to the European Parliament, and while that’s no longer the case (I’m sure you don’t need me to explain why, to this politically tuned-in audience), they still hold some significance today. For instance, if you’ve ever completed a survey and been asked what region you’re in—well, this is what is meant.
South Staffordshire is a small leg left over from the creation the West Midlands and is joined in the latest Boundary Commission report to a bit of the Black Country,
For the rest of the county, including Stoke, read on.
Stoke (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Newcastle-under-Lyme; Stoke-on-Trent Central; Stoke-on-Trent North; Stoke-on-Trent South)
Staffordshire East (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Burton and Uttoxeter; Lichfield; Staffordshire Moorlands; Tamworth)
Staffordshire West (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Cannock Chase; Stafford; Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge)
The Geography
Stoke-on-Trent became a unitary authority in 1997, but that doesn’t cover Newcastle-under-Lyme or all of the area represented by the three Stoke seats. Stoke South, for instance, includes a stretch of rural Staffordshire land, which bulges out on my STV Constituency map. Originally, I included Newcastle in the name, but although I dropped it, there is a good case for this to be Stoke and Newcastle-under-Lyme.
I’ve divided the rest of Staffordshire into East and West. The East constituency is a bit straggly due to working around the Stoke area, but then the current Burton and Uttoxeter constituency also looks like a leftover. Lichfield and Tamworth fit naturally together on the map but are quite different on the ground—Lichfield is a cathedral city, while Tamworth feels more, shall we say, down-to-earth.
Staffordshire West is more uniform, a rural break between Stoke and the West Midlands conurbation. Cannock Chase has an interesting history in mining, while the rest of the constituency is rural, centred around the county town..
The Politics
In 2019, the Stoke area was one of considerable success for the Conservative Party. South, with its rural segment, had already been in their column, but all three others were gained, and their overall vote was over 50%.
In 2024, Labour gained all 4, though in South it was just by a whisker and overall their vote was around 40%. Reform UK increased to about 20% everywhere in an area that had voted for Brexit in higher numbers than nationally.
We can take from that the Conservatives would have gone down from 2 to 1 MP here and there would have been quite an even spread, possible 1 MP each for the three parties mentioned, with the fourth being open, with Labour favourites depending on second preferences.
Staffordshire Moors was Labour held during the Blair years but the Conservatives held on in 2024. This seeming anomaly can be explained by Labour voting Kidsgrove now being in Stoke North. The other three seats in East were lost by the Conservatives to Labour here, but not by large amounts. It’s another of my STV constituencies where I’d have to split the representation 3 ways, with the fourth up for grabs. The Greens and Liberal Democrats would be stretched to make much of an impact even with a campaign. Transfers from these two parties would make Labour favourite to get a second
West only elects 3 MPs under my model. In 2019, all three were won by the Conservatives, and they would likely have won 2 under STV. Labour have gained Cannock and Stafford now but the overall split suggests 1 each for the two big parties and Reform UK, though this guess is complicated because the latter didn’t stand a candidate in the Stone constituency. Their vote in the two neighbours suggests they would have got support here too
Not seen your area covered yet?
Subscribe for free notifications and I’ll get to you soon
Return to the Menu Page
In writing all these posts I hope I’m being entertaining, but I’ll perhaps leave that to one of Stoke’s more famous sons