STV for Southern Scotland

The area between the Border and the Central Belt can be covered by two STV Constituencies

Ayrshire & Galloway (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock;  Central Ayrshire; Dumfries and Galloway; Kilmarnock and Loudoun;  North Ayrshire and Arran )

Lothian and Borders (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale; Lothian East; Midlothian)

The Geography

The Galloway area could have been placed in with the borders (and thus reunite Dumfries with its county) and still keep the 5 and 4 pattern, but I considered the Borders area as already large enough in area. A process that wasn’t keeping current FPTP constituencies in tact might be able the move the city and adjust a border for numbers elsewhere.

The Politics

On making suggestions on how the Scottish seats might fall, I have the last Holyrood elections to go on, but the SNP vote has rather collapsed since 2021. This could recover of course, but 2024 saw them lost all 4 of their seats in Ayrshire to Labour in 2024 with majorities between 3 to 7 thousand.

Galloway & Dumfries, the south west corner of Scotland saw the Conservatives hang on but it was close to a three way tie. They doe have support around Ayr in an even year and have held that town before, so they would be hopeful of an MP here. Labour would likely hold two here to the SNP one - But the fifth could go anyway, though less likely to the Conservatives and possibly to party not yet mentioned if they campaigned harder here. Its hard to say who - Reform were at less than 10% in these constituencies in 2024, and the Greens an Lib Dems weaker still. But as I’ve said, 5 MP constituencies give a greater chance to come through the crowd - perhaps space for an enterprising independent?

Lothian and Borders is also the name of the local Police Force, though that covers Edinburgh too. When I first followed politics, the key politician in the Borders was David Steel, and two constituencies were Liberal, then Liberal Democrat. These days the name John Lamont appears in elections for Westminster, now, and initially Holyrood, and he has pulled the area into the Conservatives column. He is still young and is likely to hold the Conservative seat here for as long as he wants it. His party are weak in the Lothian area though where Labour won both seats from the SNP. My suggestion would almost certainly give an MP to each of these three parties with the fourth very much up for grabs.

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I don’t know much about Sam Fender - but he was mentioned to me by a chap who rescued me from hillside a couple of years ago, and it seems he has the song to fit this post