STV for South Yorkshire

Well most of it...

In this post, I’ll present my STV solution for most of South Yorkshire—Doncaster will wait until the next post, simply because the mapping is easier that way.

Barnsley (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Barnsley North, Barnsley South, Penistone and Stocksbridge)

Rotherham (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, Rother Valley, Rotherham)

Sheffield (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, Sheffield Central, Sheffield Hallam, Sheffield Heeley, Sheffield South East)

The Geography

This solution here presents itself, as all the current constituencies neatly fit within one of the three council areas. The only complication is that one Barnsley constituency includes territory from Sheffield, and one Rotherham seat covers territory from Doncaster. However, I’ve adhered to the guidelines laid down by the Boundaries Commission.

The Politics

After the 2024 landslide, Labour holds all 11 of these constituencies, but with an average of about half the vote.

There is a notable difference between my proposed Sheffield constituency and the other two, particularly in the performance of Reform—second place in the Barnsley and Rotherham contests where the Conservatives were not defending, and a solid third elsewhere. In Sheffield, however, Reform didn’t stand at all.

The defending Conservative in Rother Valley lost by only 1,000 votes, and I’ve read that he had a good local reputation, which might have helped him pick up votes in other parts of the borough. It’s hard to say if a Conservative could have been elected as one of the three MPs, especially since their candidate in Rotherham withdrew shortly before nominations closed. It’s safe to say Labour would win one, probably two of the three seats, with the third seat being contested between Conservatives and Reform.

Barnsley North was touted as a potential Reform gain before the election, but they came closer in the South. My best guess for Barnsley would be 2 Labour and 1 Reform. The defending Conservative in Penistone and Stocksbridge only narrowly beat Reform for second place.

Sheffield has five seats in play, and overall, with the absence of Reform, Labour's vote share is above rather than below 50%. I’d estimate Labour could win 3 of the 5 MPs, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens sharing the other two. While the Liberal Democrats seem to be declining in their former stronghold of Hallam, they still hold most of the council seats in the area and several others across the city. The Greens are a strong second in Central and Heeley.

I’ve been a bit more definitive in my guesses in this this post, but guesswork it remains!

Not see your area covered yet?

Subscribe for free and I’ll get to you soon

Return to the Menu Page

STV really is the system to get politicians to listen to… Common People