STV for South East London

Well, the bits near the river

I’ve been working mainly on my fiction for the last 2 weeks so not found as much time for this project

We have two more regions to go, London and Wales. The capital comes next; because I’m still not certain about bits of Wales, We’ll move clockwise from south of the river.

Bexley (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bexleyheath and Crayford; Erith and Thamesmead; Old Bexley and Sidcup)

Lewisham and Greenwich (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Greenwich and Woolwich; Lewisham East; Lewisham North; Lewisham West and East Dulwich)

London South (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bermondsey and Old Southwark; Clapham and Brixton Hill; Dulwich and West Norwood; Peckham;
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green)

Geography

In London I have where possible kept to the London Borough boundaries but since The Boundaries Commission didn’t always do that with their last FPTP review, my plan will have variations two.

Lambeth and Southwark boroughs were almost treated as one by the commission with their boundary cross a few times; Also Southwark lost part of Dulwich to a Lewisham seat. I’ve combined the two anyway, and though my resulting STV constituency could have been called after the boroughs, my London South name mirrors names I’ve chosen north of the river.

Greenwich Borough is split three ways but Greenwich itself is included in the constituency I have called Lewisham and Greenwich. Other parts of the borough are currently in constituencies with parts of Bexley and Bromley, and have similar fates with my

Bexley Borough is the smallest in this area and needs Thamesmead from Greenwich Borough to make it up to 3 MPs

Politics

The five seats that make up my ‘South London’ are all solidly Labour under FPTP and under STV they’d be able to rely on a minimum of two of the five, and could quite likely make that three - if the voting followed a similar pattern to FPTP - always a big if. The Green Party got three second places here and I’d be confident to say they could take one of the others. Lib Dem strength has waned here since Simon Hughes had a constituency here, but they could be favourite for the 5th

Lewisham followed a similar pattern in 2024, with Labour votes of around 60% making this a stronger area for them than former Northern heartlands though they did lose some ground to the Greens here.. With 4 seats up for grab here I can confidently predict they would take 2. The Greens would be in with a very good chance of one. The fourth would be up for grabs. The Conservatives used to have MPs in Lewisham in the 1980s, but to take one here now they’d be battling with Reform to see who could take the other’s transfers.

Reform UK are very weak in those two areas but its a different story in the outer London constituency on this map, with two 20%+ third places and 2nd place in the safe Labour Erith and Thamesmead. The Conservatives took one of the three.

I could see the three seats here split 3 ways, with Labour safest this time, then one Conservative and one Reform.

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Lots of music comes from London so it will be a question over the next three parts to find which part of London. That could be a problem because some bands will be from different part’s. Because this is the first London post, I’ll go for this one, as much for the title, though The Clash do come from different parts of the city.

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