STV For Norfolk

Norfolk tends to come in for some ribbing these days. One of the counties most famous sons, Stephen Fry, jokes about the phrase ‘Normal for Norfolk’, meaning, unusual for everywhere else.

But at one point in History, Norwich was the second largest city in the country. I’ve also read that it has more churches per head than any other city.

After the 2024 election, the county has another claim; it is now represented by MPs from five different parties. You can just about draw a line within the county from Potter Higham to Broome, and you can just about cross land represented by all five’ Roads don’t follow this like - This is Broads country and you’d have to take detours, but in thirty miles its possible to be in all colours.

For our purposes, the area with a Green MP is in a constituency that is mostly in Suffolk, so that will have to wait. It’s still a uniquely colourful corner of the UK political map.

Norfolk Coastal (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Broadland and Fakenham; Great Yarmouth; North Norfolk; North West Norfolk)

Norwich and Norfolk South (To elect 5 MPs covering the constituencies of Mid Norfolk; Norwich North; Norwich South; South Norfolk; South West Norfolk)

The Geography

Norfolk has a decent sized population, enough for nine MPs and a small part of another, which will be looked at in the Suffolk post.

This means I can split what we have into a ‘4’ and a ‘5’. How I did this was rather dictated by the long East-West shape of the Broadland constituency, which finds itself as the non-coastal part of a region I call Norfolk Coastal rather than ‘North’, because it bends round to Great Yarmouth in the East, and to make a tie in with a name I’ll be using in the next post.

This leaves the main city in with the south of its county.

The Politics

In the kind of books I used to devour when I was younger, that gave constituency profiles and are an influence on this blog, Norfolk was always highlighted as a place that went against the grain in the 20th century, moving one way when the rest of the country moved the other. In more recent years usually voted Conservative outside of Norwich, and for a while, the North coast. of course 2024 was not a ‘usual’ election

Labour don’t have any MPs in Norfolk Coastal but a sizeable vote three of the four seats here would most likely see them gaining an MP here. Their vote in North Norfolk may have been squeezed by the Lib Dem advance there, whose vote elsewhere was likely similarly squeezed die to their concentrated campaigning.

The Conservatives won all 4 seats here in 2019, but now win two. In a good year for them, which 2024 clearly wasn’t, they’d still win two here but in 2019 they would most likely be reduced to just one.

Great Yarmouth was one of the Reform UK gains, and I’m going to suggest the 4 MPs here would be split 4 ways under STV.

It’s in Norwich and Norfolk South, the Greens might come into their own. They do well in to city - 2nd place in Norwich South - and the rural areas are adjacent to where they have turned Waveney Valley (see next post). Also this is a 5 -seater which gives smaller parties a chance. They’d have to campaign hard, as they obviously did in that contest.

Otherwise the city is a Labour stronghold now at parliamentary level and also won two of the other seats. Their city and county votes average out at 40% which should guarantee 2 MPs under STV, and with transfers, they have a chance of a third In one of these, the electorate were passing comment on their Conservative candidates gung-ho attempt at being PM and wrecking the economy in a month. And this is another aspect of STV; You don’t have the abandon the party you support because they put up one unsuitable candidate. In a good year here, or even an even year, they’d be expected to get 2 MPs from the 5.

Reform UK got just above their national average, also their regional average, which could gain them 1 MP here. The Lib Dems used to hold the south of the city, but their vote seems to have gone to the Greens here.

As always, my predictions come with the disclaimer that people will be free to vote differently under STV.

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This Norwich band may not be the most famous, but they are the first live band I ever saw when they played my Freshers week at University! The song seems to fit too.. Listening back they seem to be the Housemartins before the Housemartins existed