STV for Manchester
And the surrounding towns.
What is surprising, when you look at the Political map of England, is how small Manchester is! Birmingham has 9 Constituencies, Leeds has 7. Manchester has 3!
That’s strictly going on the names… Three others are at least half in the city boundaries (Gorton and Denton, Blackley and Middleton South. Sale East and Wythenshaw), but that still makes four and a half. It’s an interesting anomaly that while in Leeds, places like Morley and Pudsey were consumed into the larger city as it grew, in Manchester, places like Salford kept their independence.
In my plan for STV, the surrounding boroughs fit neatly into pairs where one currently has 2 MPs, the other 3.
Manchester (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Gorton and Denton; Manchester Central; Manchester Rusholme; Manchester Withington)
Bolton & Bury (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bolton North East; Bolton South and Walkden; Bolton West; Bury North; Bury South)
Rochdale & Oldham (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Blackley and Middleton South; Heywood and Middleton North; Oldham East and Saddleworth; Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton; Rochdale)
Stockport & Tameside (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Ashton-under-Lyne; Cheadle; Hazel Grove; Stalybridge and Hyde; Stockport)
Salford & Trafford (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Altrincham and Sale West; Salford; Stretford and Urmston; Worsley and Eccles; Wythenshawe and Sale East)
The Geography
I could have given 5 MPs to Manchester and one of the other constituencies would have had 4. I’m including the Gorton seat in Manchester because there used to be a Manchester Gorton, but by placing the other two boundary crossers in surrounding STV constituencies to keep Sale and Middleton together
Quite a few of the FPTP constituencies do cross borough boundaries. For example, Bolton South includes Walkden which is in Salford Borough, but I’ll be keeping with the Boundary commission map.
Some of these boroughs, like Oldham and Rochdale, are natural fits, others, like Stockport and Tameside feel more ‘of convenience’.
The Politics
The four constituent parts of my Manchester STV elected Labour MPs in 2024 but only with 50% of the vote. It seems likely they would have one MP elected quickly and another after transfers. Withington was a surprise Liberal Democrat gain in 2005 but that party has slipped back since. The Greens show second in three of these FPTP seats now, with Reform UK second in Gorton and Denton, and these two parties could be fancied to pick up an MP here, especially the Greens who would likely pick up second preferences of Labour Supporters.
The Liberal Democrats would be more likely to focus campaigning in Stockport and Tameside, where their strength in the former - two gains in 2024 - would probably give them at least one of these 5 MPs. Their weakness in Tameside might restrict this to one but perhaps there is some latent support for them there.
Labour, as holder of the other three, would hope to hold at least two MPs, and Reform, second in the Tameside seats, might hope for one as well. The Conservative vote would need to recover in the two seats lost to the Lib Dems for them to pick up a seat. If they fail, it would be interesting to see how their vote split in second preferences as this would effect Reform chances, and Lib Dem chances of a second MP.
The rest of the map is now currently red, but the Labour vote is rarely much over 50% and often under, which means a confident 2 MPs, at most 3, in the other surrounding STV constituencies.
In Salford & Trafford, the Conservative strength is in the latter - Altrincham is usually theirs and its loss in 2023 another indication of what a election it was. The Urmston seat has also been their’s in a good year.been theirs in a good year - a member of the Churchill family was MP here. A recovery in either will determine if they could get more than 1 MP under STV. Otherwise Labour would expect at least 2 MPs here and Reform UK performed respectably here and could have gained an MP on 2024 voting.
Bolton and Bury is often seen as an area of key main party marginals, and although Labour swept up with gains in 2024, the Conservative support didn’t fall as far as other places, with mostly second places. Reform UK did respectably too, and I’d guess a split of 2, 1, a probable 1, with the other 1 or 2 open for competition.
Rochdale had a strange by-election shortly before the 2024 election, but George Galloway couldn’t hold onto his gain in the general election when Labour returned with an official candidate, His Workers Party did have a presence in the Oldham seats and there was another high vote for a Pro-Gaza independent, so it is possible one MP from that part of the political spectrum could make a gain here. Otherwise, its another case of two for Labour, maybe one for Reform UK based on their strength in the Middleton parts of this STV constituency, and the other up for grabs. My party, the Lib Dems, would need to work hard to recover their previous strength in the area that saw them land Rochdale and get close in Saddleworth in previous elections.
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