STV for Leicestershire

Leicestershire follows the same pattern as its East Midlands neighbours; The large city in the south of the county has an STV constituency enlarged by southern suburbs. The rest of the county is simpler.

Leicester & Leicestershire South (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Harborough, Oadby and Wigston; Leicester East; Leicester South; Leicester West; South Leicestershire)

Leicestershire North (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Hinckley and Bosworth; Loughborough; Melton and Syston; Mid Leicestershire; North West Leicestershire)

The Geography

Because its ever so slightly smaller than Derbyshire, and because a small section has been connected by the Commission with Rutland (and Lincolnshire); Leicestershire only gets two STV constituencies. One is based on Leicester, the other on the north of the county.

There was some shuffling of constituency boundaries in the North of the county to allow for the donation of a small area to Rutland. In the south, the main change was adding Oadby and Wigston of a constituency name.

The politics

The Election of 2024 will be much analysed but its effect on the City of Leicester stands out as one of the most peculiar. In an election where they swept to power, the Labour party managed to lose two thirds of a city where they hadn’t suffered a defeat in a General Election since 1983.

In Leicester South, this was part of the Pro-Gaza Independents phenomenon we’ve already seen in Birmingham and Blackburn but Jonathan Ainsworth was its most high profile victim. In Leicester was up against not one but two of its former representatives here; Claudia Webbe and Keith Vaz, who both had rather chequered histories as MPs but took nearly 20% of the vote between them. Webbe had seen her majority in 2019 much reduced from Vaz’s in previous elections.

The two constituencies to the south were safe enough in 2019 to be holdable despite massive reductions in their vote.

All of which is interesting to psephologists both professional and amateur (like me) but makes it well nigh impossible to predict what might happen under STV. Could the pro-Gaza vote also be found elsewhere in Leicester? Would the votes for the two ex-MPs transfer to the ongoing Labour cause in later rounds? Would the Lib Dem vote in Wigston and Oadby that gives them control of that council, show up under STV? Reform did score above their national average in one of these seats but less well in the city.

My guess would be both larger parties would win one and be very competitive for a second, but the fifth would be anyone’s guess.

The election in ‘North’ was more typical of 2024. All five were comfortable going on very safe for the Conservatives and in all of them their vote came down by 50+% to well under 40%, resulting in two losses.

The Reform UK vote is just under 20% across these five, but no where did they get a second place. This might be enough for 1 MP to be elected here, but that would depend on their ability to take second preferences. Hinckley and Bosworth is unusual in that a long time Liberal Democrat candidate scores well in second but the party’s vote across the other five would make it a struggle to elect him under STV.

Going on 2024 votes alone, North would look like a 2-2 split between the major parties with the fifth up for grabs, but as I say in most of these posts, both voting patterns, and indeed campaigning patterns, STV would be different.

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I was only vaguely aware this singer was from Leicester*, but should any fellow Gillingham supporters be reading this, they’ll understand my selection, as I hope the Last Waltz for FPTP will soon be upon us.
(*Actually born in India)