STV for Leeds and Bradford
And a little more on what I am doing.
Here is an important qualifier for this project!
If we ever adopt the Single Transferable Vote (STV) in the UK, the Boundaries Commission— the organization that adjusts constituency boundaries every few elections to account for population shifts—will have the freedom to create a new electoral map with full access to data and ample time for planning.
For this project, however, I don’t have access to their resources or time. I’m working strictly from the boundaries used in the 2024 Election. I won’t be altering any constituencies; instead, I’ll be grouping them together. This means that while my ‘proposals’ aim to be practical, they could likely be improved upon with more flexibility.
Another aspect of this investigation is that I’ll be offering suggestions on the political dynamics within these new constituencies. This is a delicate task because, as I’ll explore in a later post, voter behavior might shift under an STV system. With less pressure to vote ‘tactically,’ we could see different patterns emerge.
But I’ve bantered too long.. its time to start looking at my proposal. I could have started at one end of the UK or the other. Instead, I’m starting somewhere in the middle for no better reason than I live here.
Leeds
Leeds has a population sufficient for seven and a half constituencies. The current model designates seven constituencies with ‘Leeds’ in their title, while outlying areas to the east and south are grouped with other constituencies.
In this post, I’m focusing on these ‘seven’, so they need to be split into a group of three and a group of four. There are several ways to do this, but the River Aire provides a natural division of the city, almost perfectly matching the required ratio. The river flows from the northwest as it enters the city, placing the western suburbs on the ‘South Bank’. It might surprise the good people of Calverley to learn that they are considered part of ‘South Leeds,’ but this is how the division falls.
Here’s my proposed division of Leeds:
Leeds North (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Leeds East, Leeds Central and Headingley, Leeds North East, Leeds North West)
Leeds South (to elect 3 MPs, covering Leeds South, Leeds South West and Morley, Leeds West and Pudsey)
These constituency names were new for 2024, as the boundary commission chopped each of the pre-existing constituencies in half and recombined them with other halves, especially in the west of the city. Without that change, I wouldn’t have been able to use the river as my divider. This restructuring means it’s difficult to provide a ‘constituency profile’ for each of them. Some, like East and South, are solidly Labour; others, like ‘North West’ and ‘South West and Morley’, include areas that had a Conservative MP before 2024.
In 2024, all seven constituencies were won by Labour, even though the party secured only around 50% of the total vote.
In an STV election, it’s fair to say that at least one of the MPs in each half would have been a guaranteed MP for Labour. In Leeds North, they likely would have secured a second seat, and in Leeds South, they would have been competitive for a second. Since two of Labour’s prominent figures, Rachel Reeves and Hilary Benn, currently represent constituencies in the South, simple name recognition could have increased their chances, although at least one of them wouldn’t be as ‘safe’ as they are now.
Strength in areas like Guiseley and Alwoodley would probably mean a Conservative would be elected in the North, barring a disastrous year for them. The other seat in each half? I wouldn’t like to guess. The Lib Dems would have a better chance in the North, while Reform and the Greens would be looking to make a gain.
Bradford
Bradford currently has 5 MPs, and all constituencies are entirely within the City Council’s boundaries. Given this situation, the solution is straightforward: Bradford would elect its 5 MPs in a single constituency.
Constituencies with 5 seats up for grabs are generally good news for smaller parties.
Bradford (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bradford East, Bradford South, Bradford West, Keighley and Ilkley, Shipley)
Labour won 4 of these 5 constituencies in 2024, though one of those MPs now sits as an independent after failing to follow the whip. The Conservatives held on to Keighley and Ilkley, which is quite an impressive hold given the overall national result. Labour had previously held the seat throughout the Blair years, even in 2005 when the Conservatives began a modest recovery.
The underlying politics in Bradford is complex. East and West have a high Muslim population, which led to pro-Palestinian Independents performing well in 2024, nearly taking the West seat. Generally speaking, STV would be advantageous for independents who can latch onto a popular local cause, as it allows them to receive their true measure of support (more on this in a later post!).
Shipley was a gain for Labour from the Conservatives.
My best guess for the 2024 result under STV would have been 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 pro-Palestinian Independent, and 1 Reform, who have strength particularly in the South.
The Greens have a presence in Shipley but would need to tap into any growing dissatisfaction with Labour in other parts of the city.
The Lib Dems held the East constituency in the Coalition, but now face a long road back.
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STV is would peace and engagement to politics…. These guys may be singing about sommat else