STV for Kent

As I make it 'home' at last!

I started this project in Yorkshire, where I have lived over half my life.. But Kent is where is started for me, the corner I knew for 18 years, and where I first voted.

Kent East (To elect 5 MPs covering the constituencies Ashford; Dover and Deal; East Thanet; Folkestone and Hythe; Herne Bay and Sandwich )

Kent Mid (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Canterbury; Faversham and Mid Kent; Tunbridge Wells; Weald of Kent)

Kent West (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Dartford; Gravesham; Sevenoaks; Tonbridge)

Medway (To elect 5 MPs covering the constituencies of Chatham and Aylesford; Gillingham and Rainham; Maidstone and Malling; Rochester and Strood; Sittingbourne and Sheppey)

Geography

Like Essex over the Thames, Kent sends 18 MPs to parliament. Only the Medway Towns has multiple constituencies, and that is now a Unitary Authority. There are two and a bit constituencies there; The one named after Chatham, the largest of the towns, has for some years not covered the High Street area but has stretched over the downs to include areas closer to Maidstone. Because the county town is also on the river, that’s my reasoning for adding it into my Medway STV constituency. The isle of Sheppey is at the mouth of the river, and has always been joined to Sittingbourne for electoral purposes, on the same rail line and the A2, so that gets included to in my 5MP Medway constituency. This is the area of my youth; I feel permitted to join it all together.

Kent West is made up of those ares one travels to by train to get to the rest of the county, though there is a definite difference in vibe between Sevenoaks and Dartford.

Kent East is made up of the coastal and port areas. I’ve included Ashford because, although the town is inland, its constituency nearly reaches the coast.

As with other counties, my ‘Mid’ is rather what is left over. This is the area of orchards and hops that make the county ‘The Garden of England’ The road links between, say Canterbury and Tunbridge Wells, are not obvious and the latter town probably belong more naturally in ‘West’, but its constituency includes what is ‘The Weald.

Politics

In good years for the party, the County is a Conservative one. I was brought up to believe that Gillingham, where we lived (actually we were in Rainham which has since been added to the constituency name), would always be ‘blue’, but in the first anti-Tory earthquake in 1997, the north of the county turned red. It wasn’t as much of a surprise when that was repeated in 2024.

Although Labour gained four of the Medway five seats in that year, all five were close to being three way marginals with Reform UK - Nowhere did the winning party get close to 40%, in all five the Reform vote was greater than 20%. All three of these parties would take a seat here. The other two would be down to transfers and variations in STV voting.

In West, the two seats on the Estuary produced similar results to Medway; Labour wins with small majorities, and good sized reform UK votes.

The two inland constituencies were different. In Tonbridge, the Conservative then leadership hopeful Tom Tugenhat gained one his party’s few 5 figure majorities. They also won Sevenoaks, but there the Liberal Democrats were their strongest rivals.

The variety there makes it hard to predict what could happen under STV. There would be one Labour, one Conservative, but the other two would be up for grabs. Both larger parties would be hopeful of a second.

Kent East was another area of narrow Labour gains. Thanet and the Dover seat do sometimes go labour and were won with a bit to spare. Ashford and Folkestone, the seat of leader Tory Michael not so long ago, were more symptoms of that terrible election for that party. Veteran Roger Gale did hold on in Herne Bay for them, perhaps on a personal vote. Its notable that the Green party achieved votes around 10% here, and with a push, might be able to get one of 5 MPs here. Otherwise I’d have to say one each for Labour, Conservative and Reform with the two larger parties leading for the other two, based on 2nd preferences

Kent Mid is probably the hardest of the lost to predict, with 4 very different 2024; a close Conservate win, a more comfortable Conservative win. In Canterbury, a comfortable hold for Labour in a traditionally Tory seat, but the MP has since resigned the whip.

The Lib Dems won Tunbridge Wells by a margin I doubt they were expecting, but there doesn’t seem to be the same support for them in the other three quarters of the seat. Of course under STV, voting habits are likely to change, and their vote will have been squeezed, particularly in Canterbury.

So what can I predict? A seat each for the larger parties and a free for all for the other two.

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For my Kent Music contribution I look to the North west corner of the county, Mr Jagger….