STV for Hertfordshire

We finish the Eastern region with a county that most people wouldn’t connect with ‘East Anglia’. There are old Roman towns like St Albans, quite a lot of modern development and the two places created as ‘Garden Cities’

Hertfordshire South (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Broxbourne; Hertsmere; South West Hertfordshire; Watford).

Hertfordshire Mid (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Harpenden and Berkhamsted; Hemel Hempstead; St Albans; Welwyn Hatfield).

Hertfordshire North (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Hertford and Stortford; Hitchin; North East Hertfordshire; Stevenage).

Geography

Situated as it is just north of London, Hertfordshire’s communication lines are dominated by the main road and rail routes from the capital to the north. The constituencies though, especially the long standing Hertsmere and the new arrangement of Harpenden and Berkhamsted, pushed me into going for STV Constituencies that run east to west.

When I was a kid I assumed Watford was a London Suburb (and Watford FC a London team) because then I took the London Underground Map, and my Grandad’s London A-Z map, as the arbiters of what was where. Watford constituency is in fact the one of the four to makeup my ‘south’ that doesn’t border London because its two neighbours curl under to the south to take in other areas named on the underground like Bushey and Rickmansworth. My ‘South’ extends to the East, where Broxbourne constituency covers the ribbon development up the Lea Valley.

The area to the North that makes up my ‘Mid’ is one where FPTP boundaries tend to chop and change as the commissioners work out where to place Harpenden, location of the first post university wedding I attended. This where the different northerly routes really stand out compared to the east west ones. the towns here are varied between comfortable middle class places and new town developments but circumstances fit them together.

My ‘North’, perhaps more accurately the North East, is the most rural part of the county, but also includes Stevenage and its surrounding towns, all on the line out of King’s cross. Hitchen Constituency, and thus also my North Herts, includes a small bit of Bedfordshire, something I missed when writing up that county. Bishop’s Stortford in the East is perhaps better connected to West Essex towns. It’s where I stopped for lunch after returning to Stanstead airport.

Politics

The South of the county was an area of relative Conservative success in 2024, which means their vote only went down by a third and Hertsmere was held comfortably enough. In the west of this area around Watford, the Lib Dems have had a long period of success a local level but this has rarely transferred over to national contests. They hold the mayoralty of Watford each time and dominate ‘Three Rivers council. The new SW constituency, based on Three Rivers, did give them one of their close second places.

Labour won Watford but with less than 40% vote share. Reform had varying results that averaged out at their national vote level. On 2024 results, a four way split in representation would be a possibility. in any other year, the Conservatives would pick up at least 2 MPs here.

’Mid’ was an area of Liberal Democrat success. Deputy leader Daisy Cooper is now very well established in St Albans and the party also made a gain in Harpenden and Berkhamsted. They have a better chance of picking up two MPs here under STV than just about any place looked at so far, but perhaps only truly confident of one because they didn’t pick up many votes in the other two constituent parts which were close fights between Labour and Conservatives . This is an STV constituency where the Tories might have benefited from STV in 2024, having lost three MPs in close battles.

So I would predict one each for the three main traditional parties, with the 4th up for grabs with Reform being in with a shout

In my ‘North’ STV constituency the Conservatives would definitely have benefitted from a change of system in 2024… though conversely they would have suffered from the change previously. This because they held all 4, and lost all of them to Labour by small margins in that election

This points to an STV result where 3 of the 4 places in parliament would split 2-1 between the main parties with the 4th up for grabs. Reform would have led the race for that extra place but it would depend on vote transfers

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Watford and the surrounding area has given pop music two of its most iconic stars, so, lets see them singing together.. one of my favourite songs of the ones I’m sharing here.