STV for Hampshire
Another one with a bit to do
After Essex and Kent, Hampshire is the third of the ‘home counties’ that sends 18 MPs to Westminster. In the case of this county, though, a cross border seat with Surrey has been created, so on this page I have 19 MPs to ‘elect’
Hampshire East & Farnham (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies Aldershot; East Hampshire; Farnham and Bordon; North East Hampshire)
Hampshire West (To elect 3 MPs covering the constituencies of New Forest East; New Forest West; Romsey and Southampton North)
Portsmouth (To elect 5 MPs covering the constituencies of Fareham and Waterlooville; Gosport; Havant; Portsmouth North; Portsmouth South)
Southampton (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Eastleigh; Hamble Valley; Southampton Itchen; Southampton Test)
Winchester & Basingstoke (To elect 3 MPs Basingstoke; North West Hampshire; Winchester)
Geography
My solution for Hampshire feels less than ideal, especially in the more rural parts of the county. I was guided by the transport routes being more North-South than East West. This is reflected in the shape of constituencies like Hampshire East and Southampton North and Romsey.
There is also the New Forest which is almost a separate part of the county and only 2 MPs. I did wonder if that area could be joined with the Isle of Wight for a 4 MP constituency but would have been too controversial.
I think an STV enquiry might separate Southampton North and slip it into Southampton, but my rules don’t permit that, so my Hampshire West combines the two problem areas into a three MP constituency.
The Two cities on the waterfront get their own constituencies with their satellites; Portsmouth gets rather more in the way of surrounding area, for 5 MPs. Southampton gets Eastleigh and Hamble Valley for 4 MPs.
The part of Surrey included covers Farnham, which runs into Aldershot and Farnborough the major population centre in the North East of the county. Basingstoke could have been a good fit here given the M3 motorway but that would have left the FPTP Hampshire East constituency hard to place
Instead Basingstoke goes into something of a leftover STV constituency. I often call these ‘Mid’, but in this case I’ve opted for the two main towns, although they are some distance apart.
Politics
Before the 2024 election, Hampshire was a mostly blue county with just Portsmouth South and Southampton Test breaking the mold. The Conservatives have now lost about half the county, some of it expected, some of it a surprise. There are a number of close results and a number of constituencies where all the main players saved their deposit. This makes predicting what would happen under STV tricky, as many of the places would be awarded after several counts and transfers
Portsmouth South stayed Labour by some margin, but North was very close and Havant had a three-way finish. High Profile Suella Braverman was aided by split opposition in Fareham while Gosport was a more comfortable hold. With 5 places up for grabs, the Reform UK average of about 20% across the five parts would give them a strong hope of 1 MP. The Lib Dems used to win Portsmouth South, and did OK in a couple of other parts. They have an outside chance of 1 MP. The others would most likely be split between the larger two parties, though which way round would go to the wire. Labour’s chance of a second could depend on the Lib Dem vote not recovering.
The Lib Dems made 3 gains across the county and but these three constituencies are to be found in different sections of my plan. Eastleigh should have been their most comfortable gain given their stronghold on local government here, but it was by less than 2000. They came second but not so close in Hamble Valley, and in Southampton their vote is low; perhaps squeezed by the two party battles here. They might hope to keep their gain here but it would be close.
The Reform vote in Southampton is just a little below their national average, and with only 4 places available, they could lose out without a change in voting patterns.
By ignoring the likelihood of a change in voting patterns under STV, my predictions are tending to favour the big two. On that basis they’d likely share the remaining seats here but as usual that comes with my qualification.
The three parts of my Hampshire West were all held by the Conservatives but on reduced votes of less than 40%. That would leave them with 1 MP for sure and possibly two, but all the other parties did fairly here with Labour close in both halves of New Forest and the Lib Dems getting close in Romsey, which they once held. The Conservatives would hold one, the other 2 would be up for grabs.
Moving away from the coast, Winchester was the Lib Dem’s most comfortable gain in the county, bolstered no doubt by attracting all the anti-Conservative vote. The reverse happened in the north of this seat with Labour taking a win in Basingstoke and getting close in NW Hampshire. Under STV this need for tactical voting goes, but its effect on the 2024 election makes this hard to predict, I’ll stick my neck out and suggest the same distribution under STV; 1 for each of Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem.
To me as a party member, the Lib Dem gain in North East Hampshire came as a surprise, but the party also came close in Hampshire East and in the seat shared with Surrey, Farnham and Bordon. This suggests there are votes here to elect one Lib Dem for sure. The Conservatives held on in both of these and Labour took Aldershot with some comfort; Surprising in Historical terms but not so much on recent locals. Its likely three MPs here will come from different parties with the fourth up for grabs. Reform UK are not at their strongest here but wouldn’t be out of the running for the 4th.
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For the musical contribution for Hampshire, I was considering a military band given the influence of the Army in Aldershot and the Navy in Portsmouth, but I couldn’t think of a specific tune, so instead I’ve gone for something more modern than my usual musical tastes.. Craig David is from Southampton