STV for Essex
(and apologies for the delay)
When I first started making these posts, they were flowing forth at several a day… but 2 weeks ago I decided to complete all the maps for future posts.. The boring bit is getting all the ‘surrounding areas’ coloured in a way that match for their maps.. Just look at the map here for Essex, at the bottom left corner; I decided I needed to do the maps for London first…
Anyway, on to Essex… which for our purposes include the two unitary Boroughs that used to be in the county, Southend and Thurrock.
Basildon and Thames (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Basildon and Billericay; Castle Point; South Basildon and East Thurrock; Thurrock).
Chelmsford and Mid Essex (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Braintree; Chelmsford; Maldon; Witham).
Colchester and North Essex (To elect 3 MPs covering the constituencies of Clacton; Colchester; Harwich and North Essex).
Essex West (To elect 4 MPs covering the constituencies of Brentwood and Ongar; Epping Forest; Harlow; North West Essex).
Southend (To elect 3 MPs covering the constituencies of Rayleigh and Wickford; Southend East and Rochford; Southend West and Leigh).
Geography
Essex is a large county with the population to match. When we include the two Unitary boroughs that are historically in the county, it has 18 MPs with no boundary crossing.
It seems to come in three unequal distinct parts; Seaside retirement homes, a band of typical English countryside of villages and small towns.. and a wedge of ‘new town’ at the bottom that has given rise to the stereotype of ‘Essex Girl’ - and boy leading to the ‘Reality’ show the ‘Only Way is Essex’ and the assertion that people there are not that bright…. I should point out the 3 people I know who grew up in the area; two cousins and a friend who is married to my bestie are ABSOLOUTELY NOTHING LIKE this stereotype - which I’m sure isn’t true anyway.
With 18 MPs to assign, I could have aimed at some 5MP STV groupings but actually the area types fit together more neatly in 3’s and 4’s. In the South of the county we have Southend and it’s built up area which fits together well as a 3MP constituency, and the rest of the south, as a 4 MP constituency.
My Essex West grouping joins together the areas joined by the M11 rather than A roads 12 and 13. In the North, Colchester is the gateway to coastal regions that are largely retirement centres.
And is often the way with Constituencies called ‘Mid’, the county town of Chelmsford is groups with what is left over.
Politics
Starting in the North, Colchester and North Essex would most likely have given the same return to parliament in 2024 under STV as under FPTP. Clacton, of course, hit the headlines for electing Nigel Farage, and there is enough support for his party in the other two thirds to suggest he’d have no problem getting elected under STV, especially with his name on the ballot.
Colchester elected a Liberal Democrat when they last had a reasonable presentation in Westminster, but it was always something of a 3-way marginal and now it has elected a Labour MP. Labour also came close to taking the constituency in between from long time ant-EU conservative Bernard Jenkin whose stand on that issue didn’t prevent nearly half his vote abandoning him for Reform. As I have said throughout, STV would see different voting patterns but I’m fairly confident of my prediction of a 3 way split here for 2024. It would be interesting to see if Farage’s vote would stay with him if he doesn’t do the job of constituency MP. I suspect people who share his world view would want to keep him on the stage anyway.
My Essex Mid STV constituency saw 3 Conservatives elected in 2024, all three candidates high to medium profile. its unlikely on their vote share they could elect 3 under STV. They did lose Chelmsford to a Lib Dem candidate and it would be interesting see if more uniform campaigning by my party could see them with enough votes or 2nd preferences to hold that MP in an STV election. This is one place where no Labour MP was elected by they and Reform have enough support here to be in with a chance of one MP. I’m be far less confident of a prediction here. In a better year for them, two Conservatives, but it’s possible representation here could have been split four ways in 2024.
On the west side of the county, the Conservatives only lost Harlow; not their worst loss as New Town do tend to swing further than others, but this loss did come with a halving of their vote. The other three they held though but with less than 40% on average, which suggests under STV they could hold two of the 4 places but the second would be close. Labour won Harlow and had a decent vote elsewhere so they’d be nailed on for one, but the vote here was widely spread and the last two places would depend on second preferences. Epping Forest had an independent who saved his deposit and no Reform candidate. These two facts could be linked since, from a glance at his on-line presence, the Independent was pro-Brexit. As I’ve said before, STV would hold two sides for Independents. On one hand, we could tell their true level of supports as people inclined to vote them could do so and still have a say in the final result id that support level fell short; On the other, the Independent would have to spend more money to reach the a larger audience.
The other part of the South Essex stereotype is that he or she can tend to the ‘flag waving patriot’, which can tend the area to the Right of where the demographic might suggest. Indeed in the Southernmost constituency we had elected the one Reform MP who wasn’t previously a household name.
This is an area not strong on alternative left of centre votes. Labour won in Thurrock, the Conservatives took the other two but one was close to a three way tie. It’s would be fair to suggest the three parties successful under FPTP would win a seat each, but the fourth would definitely depend on later preferences.
Labour made two surprising gains in Southend, but all three results in my Southend STV area were tight three way battles and one MP each for Labour, Conservative and Reform looks likely. The other parties would be starting from a low base, though one of the Southend seats has seen a reasonable Lib Dem vote before.
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This has bee megapost given the number of MPs elected from Essex, but that’s no reason to lose the musical finale. I’m doubting myself now but I’m sure my aforementioned friend from here has mentioned she know Vince Clark from school.. and he’s been in a fair few bands. i think Depeche Mode are the one most routed in the area…