STV for Edinburgh

There is going to be something of a disparity of content for the next two posts because of the way I have created my maps. This post, Edinburgh has all to herself. while the next one will the tackle the rest of the Central Belt.

Edinburgh currently has 5 MPs so the simplest thing is to say that under STV, these 5 will be elected in one go.

Edinburgh (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Edinburgh East and Musselburgh; Edinburgh North and Leith; Edinburgh South West; Edinburgh South; Edinburgh West)

The Geography

The only complication here is that Musselburgh is included in an Edinburgh seat but is in the East Lothian Council area. Edinburgh West does stretch up to the Forth Bridge, but this area is covered by the City council area.

The Politics

At the 2024 election, four of the five winners were Labour, with three gains and an average vote increase of 15%. This suggests Labour could make at least one, if not two, gains under STV, to either 2 or 3 MPs.

The exception is Edinburgh West, where Christine Jardine secured over 50% of the vote for the first time, holding the seat for the Liberal Democrats. Though her party didn’t perform strongly in other seats, there’s likely enough support across the city—perhaps boosted by transferred votes—to secure her re-election under STV.

Meanwhile, the SNP finished second in all constituencies, so they could reasonably expect to hold at least one STV seat.

The Conservatives historically held at least one seat in the City, but now they would probably trail Labour for that extra win.

Leith gets mentioned in a constituency name but that’s also within Edinburgh City, actually not that far from the centre. This does give me a chance to include a video of a favourite song.