STV for East Lancashire
Something of a calm before the storm post, with one STV constituency before we dive into the major cities in the next two posts.
East Lancashire (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Blackburn; Burnley; Hyndburn; Pendle and Clitheroe; Rossendale and Darwen)
The Geography
I always think of the East Lancashire area as being a line east to west but that’s because I usually travel though on the train or on the M65. But there’s plenty of territory to the north and south of those lines especially now Clitheroe is added. To the south is the Rossendale seat, which the Boundary Commission usually leave in place even though it has very little east-west routes.
No such problems here; just a natural 5 MP STV Constituency
The Politics
It was a real changing of the guard here in 2024, as Labour gained four constituencies from the Conservatives but lost the one they previously held to an Independent. Blackburn was one of five seats lost to candidates from their left flank. One of those wasn’t a surprise (which we’ll come to much later), the other four were down to Keir Starmer’s hesitancy on his policy on the war in Gaza.
I am saying throughout this project that STV would be better for independent candidates. Perhaps that needs a qualification. It’s certainly true that voters will be free to vote for an independent candidate who catches their eye, and it will be this possible to tell the true level of support for that candidate. But will it be easier for them to win a seat in parliament?
Adnan Hussain would have taken many of his votes from the town’s Muslim population. Not all of them, maybe, but his support could be specific to Blackburn. To win a seat in East Lancashire, he would need first or later preference votes of over 20% across the whole of these five constituencies, some of whose voters will not be quite as motivated by the issue he campaigned on.
Hyndburn and Burnley also have significant Muslim populations, but it's important not to oversimplify the idea that support for a candidate like Hussain would break solely along ethnic lines or over one specific issue like Gaza. Local priorities and varying political motivations will be a factor in how votes transfer under STV.
If we say that there is the vote here for one pro-Gaza Independent, I’m guessing Labour would win at least two others and the Conservatives would not be wiped; They’d likely pick up at least one STV MP even in 2024. Its another of my constituencies where winning candidates gained 40% or less of the votes. Transferred votes would again be a big factor.
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Now I’m sure there are many fine musicians in East Lancashire, but I’m going for the 4000 holes.