STV for Dorset

As we move onto the South West region

I was planning to move just across the border to Gloucestershire as a move into a new region but I had a sudden urge to get some sea and sand by the coast. Oh and Dorset is a smaller task to write about.

Bournemouth, Poole and Christchurch (To elect 5 MPs covering the constituencies of Bournemouth East; Bournemouth West; Christchurch; Mid Dorset and North Poole; Poole)

Dorset (To elect 3 MPs North Dorset; South Dorset; West Dorset )

Geography

The placement of the Bournemouth Conurbation is complicated a bit; It was part of Hampshire until 1974 and is now a Unitary Authority. It’s continuing inclusion in Dorset of Electoral purposes does mean this region splits easily into two parts, but they are not equal - BCP takes up just over half the electorate, and then the Mid Dorset and Poole North constituency spans both parts.

As far as my solution was concerned it was question of into which of my STV constituencies to place MD/NP, and I go for keeping Poole together, so a 5 and a 3.

Since what is left is most of what is Dorset county now, I can go for a simple name.

Politics

Like so many counties around the middle and south of England, the political picture post 2024 is far more complex than before because of the Conservative collapse. What was a sea of blue is now a flash of colour.

Both halves are split three ways now, and in’Dorset’ that’s the most likely result for the three MP places up for grabs. South had been Labour before, with a lot of the population around Weymouth. The Lib Dems took West quite comfortably, and were only 2000 from taking North too. Reform UK were at around 15% across all three results, which is unlikely to be enough in a 3 MP seat, though they could attract more support with a higher chance, under STV, of some success.

Labour took the three constituencies in the middle of BCP with varying degrees of comfort - Poole itself was one of the most marginal results with a majority of just 18. In Christchurch the Conservatives held on with some comfort as the next three parties were almost evenly split. The Lib Dems did sneak 2nd there, and also regained MD/NP. It’s interested to note that West Dorset, which they’d not held before, was an easier gain, but then I saw there was no Reform UK candidate in MD/NP. Had there been, their margin of victory there may have been greater.

Looking at the 5 MPs for BCP, I think we can confidently say the conservatives would have lost at least one tis time, but that 3 would be equally divided between them, Labour and Lib Dem. The other two would be up for grabs with Reform in with a decent chance of one of them.

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I had to do a bit of digging to find our musical interlude for Dorset, but it wasn’t as hard as some pages. This guy was born in Scotland, but had been Dorset based for much of his childhood and life