STV for Devon

One of the larger areas of the South West

My posts have become rarer of late, partly because I’ve been giving my time to another writing project.

Also, I knew this one was a biggie so I’ve been putting it off; not so easy to fit into a spare 15 minutes.

Devon North and Minehead (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Central Devon; North Devon; Tiverton and Minehead; Torridge and Tavistock)

Devon South (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Newton Abbot; South Devon; Torbay)

Exeter and Devon East (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Exeter; Exmouth and Exeter East; Honiton and Sidmouth)

Plymouth (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Plymouth Moor View; Plymouth Sutton and Devonport; South West Devon)

Geography

Devon is already one of the larger areas by area in the South West, and then the Boundary commission have add the long Exmoor arm of Somerset into the picture. This is an area that can be quite tricky to place in a Somerset seat, being less populated and quite distant from the middle of the county. It makes sense to include it in a Devon seat.

The area thus amended sends 13 MPs to Westminster that given my preference for STV seats of 4 or 5 MPs should lead me to suggests two 4s and a 5. But Devon’s geography tells against that, with 4 population centres on the edges and their hinterlands. Crossing these natural boundaries would provide a messier solution.

Thus I have taken the most famous cities, Exeter and Plymouth, and added small areas around them to make 3 MP constituencies. Torbay is also a significant area of the population, and to that I add the rest of the south of the County.

What’s left is the largest area by far, the North, Middle and West, including all of Dartmoor and the parts of Somerset included.

Politics

Labour won the three seats in the two cities with a bit to spare because of divided opposition. One of these was a gain from the Conservatives where Johnny Mercer’s vote was more than halved. The third part of the Plymouth constituency was held by the Conservatives, but not by much. Labour would certainly take one of the three seats under STV on 2024 figures. The Conservatives would certainly be disappointed not to take another. The third could very much be up for grabs.

In my Exeter seat, a 3 way split, as we had under FPTP, would be the most likely result. Labour’s hold in the city was comfortable and the seat shared with Exmouth was close to a three way tie. The Lib Dem success in the most rural third was by a wide margin, and there the Labour vote was low, possibly squeezed some what by the Lib Dem By-election winner Richard Foord. I know I always qualify these predictions but the same distribution of seats as we actually got does seem the most likely.

South Devon was an area that The Lib Dems swept the board with three gains but their votes were in the 40%s in two and much lower in the third. They would lose out here under their official policy of introducing STV. Its possible they might lose 2 of the 3 to other parties because there is still a Conservative vote here, and Reform UK would fancy their chances too. I’d predict One Lib Dem, one Conservative, and the lib Dems and Reform to battle it out for the last

The 2024 result split my North area 2-2 between the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but its not an easy one to predict what might happen under STV. The two seat in the north had similar patterns; Lib Dems 40%, Conservative 30%, Reform 15% and labour less than 10%. The Tavistock based seat in the west was similar with the first two places reversed and the margin of victory smaller. On the other hand Central Devon was nearly gained by Labour, just 70 votes behind, with the Lib Dems on about half of winning vote and Reform not far behind. I’ll stick my neck out here and say the Lib Dems will retain the two they won, the Conservatives would win one and the third up for grabs.

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For the musical interlude I go for a lesser know Devon singer singing a favourite song of mine.