STV for Coventry and North Warwickshire

My title for this page gives you the names of my STV constituencies.

Most of my pages depend on what I can fit onto one map and in this instance the problem came down to how the former West Midlands county was carved out on the historic counties.

Coventry (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Coventry East; Coventry North West; Coventry South)

North Warwickshire (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  North Warwickshire and Bedworth; Nuneaton; Rugby)

The Geography

What was left of Warwickshire was a strange shape; A pie with a bite taken. As a result I can’t get the whole county in without covering areas already shown. We’ll have to take it in two parts

This does mean I can include the last part of what was ‘West Midlands’ county - Coventry. North Warwickshire is something of a straggly area, with the population in the middle (Nuneaton/Bedworth) and at the south(Rugby), and well served by motorways.

The area layout does restrict me to 3 MP constituencies

The Politics

Coventry has had a Conservative MP in the past, but the city didn’t fall for the party’s charms in 2019. Unsurprisingly, it’s now an all-Labour city. Their vote share is less than 50% in all seats, with turnout also low—less than 50% in East. This could indicate that some Labour supporters saw the results as a foregone conclusion. It’s also true that Coventry’s politics have shown a tendency in the past to be more left of centre, and Keir Starmer’s Labour may be less enticing. Coventry was once represented by Dave Nellist, who formed a breakaway group to the left of Labour. If that political strain is still active in the city, STV could give them a chance to organise and win a seat.

Otherwise, Labour should be confident of winning one seat and being very competitive for a second. Based on the 2024 results, the Conservatives and Reform would be better placed for the third seat than the medium-left parties.

One interesting footnote: Mary Creagh, who was a respected MP in Yorkshire, now represents a third of Coventry, her home city.

In North Warwickshire, all three constituencies were Labour gains from the Conservatives, with Labour securing less than 40% of the vote. Reform’s strong showing played a key role in splitting the Conservative vote. Under STV, one MP for each of Labour, Conservatives, and Reform seems a strong possibility, provided Reform are an attractive second option for enough voters.

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The Specials are Coventry’s most famous musical combo but I wanted one of their more cheerful offerings.. The message to you, Rudy, is go for STV!