STV for Buckinghamshire and Milton Keynes

The North of Buckinghamshire is in that area of South Midlands that is split across the ‘official’ regions. The south of the county is so much ‘South East’ that its served by the London Underground.

That said, its not a large county in terms of population, with just 8 MPs

Buckinghamshire South (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Aylesbury; Beaconsfield; Chesham and Amersham; Mid Buckinghamshire;   Wycombe)

Milton Keynes and Buckinghamshire North (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of  Buckingham and Bletchley; Milton Keynes Central; Milton Keynes North )

Geography

The question you might be asking - because I’m asking it myself - is why have I split the 8 Constituencies into a 5 and a 3. I think 4 member STV constituencies work the best,

When I was designing my solution - before this years election - I just saw Milton Keynes as an entity in itself. This includes Bletchley, which has been combined for FPTP now with the rural north of the county. It could make sense to add Aylesbury constituency but that town sits more naturally with the south of the county, and so i will leave things that way in my suggestion.

Politics

Milton Keynes and the North looks quite homogenous now politically. Although one of the three parts is largely rural by territory, much of the population is in Bletchley. All three were Labour gains more due to the drop in the Conservative vote. Reform UK came third throughout but a percentage point or two lower than their national Average. With just three parliamentary places here, I’d say one each are nailed on for the big two. The other could go anywhere, but for the Lib Dems to get anywhere close some of their local election vote here would have to come good. That is possible in STV, but a Labour gain from the Conservatives is most likely for that 3rd seat. It would come down to transfers.

There was more variety in the results in the South of the county. The Lib Dems held onto their unlikely By-election gain (in normal times) with some comfort. The other four were shared between the big two with two Labour gains and two Conservative holds. Mid Buckinghamshire, with few major towns, is the kind of place that piles up Conservative votes in normal years, but which they won this time with less than 40% of the vote. Their vote was at a similar level in Beaconsfield, where the result is harder to analyse because last time the Lib Dems stood down for outgoing (and liberally minded) Tory Dominic Grieve.

Labour were triumphant in both Wycombe and Aylesbury but with vote shares of 35% and 30%, In both constituencies, five parties saved their deposits. With this spread of votes it becomes even harder to predict an STV result. The three main parties would take 1 MP from the 5 but the other two would be anyone’s guess. In a more normal year the Conservatives would expect to take 2, maybe 3.

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I am really struggling to find a famous track from Buckinghamshire or Milton Keynes! ChatGPT told me Bucks Fizz are from the county. Only a little research this isn’t true at all - none of them are. They are named after the cocktail.

But they are called BUCKS Fizz so this will have to do until someone gives me a better idea