STV for Bristol, Somerset and Wiltshire
All in one post
I’d forgotten I’d prepared the same map for all three areas, so this is going to be a bit of a megapost. I’ve removed the bit of Wales that should encroach on the map - because I’ve not finalised my solution there yet.
Bath and Somerset North (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bath; North East Somerset and Hanham; North Somerset)
Bristol (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bristol Central; Bristol East; Bristol North East; Bristol North West; Bristol South)
Salisbury and Wiltshire West (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Chippenham; Melksham and Devizes; Salisbury; South West Wiltshire)
Somerset Mid (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Bridgwater; Frome and East Somerset; Wells and Mendip Hills; Weston-Super-Mare)
Somerset South (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Glastonbury and Somerton; Taunton and Wellington; Yeovil)
Swindon and Wiltshire East (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of East Wiltshire; Swindon North; Swindon South)
Geography
Bristol was an easy decision—its five MPs made it a straightforward choice. There are areas to the east of the city that could easily be mistaken for suburbs, but these are actually part of the South Gloucestershire authority, not Bristol itself.
South Gloucestershire does contribute a small area, Hanham, to North East Somerset, which I've included in my Bath and North Somerset STV constituency.
When the Boundary Commission drew up the latest FPTP boundaries, it didn’t pay much attention to the lines between the three Unitary Authorities: Somerset, North East Somerset, and North Somerset. The name North Somerset in particular is going to cause some confusion here. It refers both to a Unitary Authority and an FPTP constituency, and now, one of my STV constituencies. These three areas cover different regions, though. My version of North Somerset includes those constituencies just south of Bristol, plus Bath. To the south, I’ve grouped the three constituencies bordering Devon and Dorset, while the remaining areas, such as Weston-Super-Mare and Midsomer Norton, are included in my Mid constituency. As I’ve mentioned, the Exmoor arm of the county is not part of this; it’s been incorporated into Devon.
As for Wiltshire, historically, it had two main population centers—Swindon and Salisbury—though Swindon has been a Unitary Authority for some time. Both are located on the east side of the county, so my West Wiltshire STV constituency wraps around to include all of the Salisbury FPTP constituency in the south. Parts of the Swindon Unitary Authority are already part of the East Wiltshire constituency, making this an easy fit.
Politics
Bristol stands out as an unusual city - It is one of my STV constituencies that would give a very strong chance of multiple Green’s being elected. Their co-leader’s election in Bristol Central was on a very big swing but it wasn’t a big surprise, but given that Greens were second in all the other constituencies in the city, the likelihood is Carla Denyer would see a colleague elected with her.
When there are 5 MPs to be elected, this does give smaller parties a chance but Bristol Politics is dominated by Labour and Greens, right now. I think 2 each for these parties would be likely, with the other open to competition.
Bath was one of the most Lib Dem orientated cities before their 2024 advance but actually lost some ground in this seat in 2024, perhaps a reflection of some unpopular decisions by the council, which they run. The other two parts of the North STV constituencies saw Labour gains from prominent Conservatives. My best guess, coming as always with the warning that people will vote differently, is that Bath and North will split its favours three ways.
Somerset Mid includes two constituencies gained by the Lib Dems in 2024, but it would be optimistic for my Party to say they could keep two in a STV election. Also included is Weston, which had a Lib Dem MP last time they advanced but which has now fallen to Labour, and Bridgewater, which stayed blue in the face of divided opposition. I think all three parties could get one MP elected here but the 4th would be very much up for grabs. It would be a fair suggestion that the centre left vote split with tactical voting, so that would change, and Reform UK got an above average vote for them in a couple of these seats.
In Somerset South the Lib Dems would lose out, but only because they gained all 3 in 2024 and that would be unlikely to be repeated under STV. All three wins were comfortable though so electing 2 MPs here would be a possibility on 2024 figures. The Conservatives probably still have enough strength here to take the third, but aside from saying definitely one Conservative before 2024 and definitely one Lib Dem after, the other place could be close.
Swindon has been a bellwether town for a while with the two seats switching in tandem to the governing party. East Wiltshire in more usually blue. Safest prediction would be a seat each for the big two with one up for grabs. There may be enough Reform UK votes across all three to make them competitive for that spare but more likely it would go to the big party in the ascendency - unless of course STV producing a major shift in voting behaviour here.
On the west Side of the County, the Lib Dems had two quite comfortable gains in the north while to the south the Conservatives held two against divided opposition - the call for tactical voting didn’t reach Salisbury where Labour and Lib Dems were close with sizeable vote totals and the Conservatives just a little way ahead. Very tricky to make an STV forecast here. Both the victorious parties would hold one but the the two would be very much up for grabs.
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This is one of the easier music choices for me.. I’m just going to choose one of my favourite tracks.. The town of Portishead is right here