STV for Birmingham and Solihull
Birmingham can be found in more constituency names than an other place in the UK - Nine. A tenth, Sutton Coldfield, is fully with in the City’s boundaries. Because there is some crossing of boundaries with Solihull, that borough is dealt with here too.
Local colour still exists in the constituency names here rather than turning to compass points. I am, I’m afraid, going to spoil that.
And my map is a bit bigger than usual - And I’ve managed to stick to 4 MP STV Constituencies, which I think is the best size
Birmingham North (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Birmingham Erdington; Birmingham Ladywood; Birmingham Perry Barr; Sutton Coldfield)
Birmingham South (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Birmingham Edgbaston; Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley; Birmingham Northfield; Birmingham Selly Oak)
Birmingham East and Solihull (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North; Birmingham Yardley; Meriden and Solihull East; Solihull West and Shirley)
The Geography
Birmingham City Centre and the motorway system is to be found in ‘North’, while South has the Cricket, the Chocolate and the Car manufacture, and a swathe of suburbs
Femi Oluwole is a campaigner I follow on You Tube and I agree with most things he says - we’re certainly on the same side on EU membership and the need for Electoral Reform. In a video he posted in the last 12 months he interviews Jess Philips - a politician I hold in high regard, perhaps one of my favourites outside my party. In this she defends FPTP and he suggests she could just as well represent West Midlands and she doesn’t like that idea at all. I think this was small slip by Femi and I had some sympathy for Philips. The West Midlands is too big an area, or least population, for an MP to cover. and its just not necessary in Electoral reform. Under STV she need only cover Birmingham East and Solihull.
The Politics
An analysis of the 2024 Election results in Birmingham is complicated by the good results gained by a few Pro-Gaza independents, and the Workers Party, brought to wider attention by George Galloway, who were focussing on a similar demographic.
These groups had their greatest success in ‘North’ where their candidate was elected as MP for Perry Bar and came close in Ladywood. They also came close in the East Birmingham seats, which we’ll come to in a moment.
Elsewhere in ‘North’ Sutton Coldfield stayed in the Conservative column as usual and Labour won the other two. There’s not much doubt there would be a Labour MP here, and first choice votes from Sutton Coldfield would probably mean a Conservative. The Reform/pro-Gaza strengths came from different parts of the STV constituency, but its well within the bounds of possibility that the 4 MPs here would come from different interests.
East, too, almost had a MP or two from that Pro-Gaza element. with one of the more publicised counts came from Yardley where the aforementioned Jess Philips gave a defiant speech and interview, despite being visibly shaken by her experiences.
The two mostly Solihull constituencies were both held by the Conservatives with moderately healthy majorities considering their overall performance. I think we can safely predict one that under STV East & Solihull would elect one MP from each of the bigger parties, and both would be competitive for at least one more. The pro-Gaza faction might have gained one, but had no strength in the blue parts. The Liberal Democrats would have to re-awaken the support that once saw them win Yardley, and Solihull when it was one seat. Reform were not at their strongest here but wouldn’t be out of the running for one. As with many places, later preferences would be key.
‘Birmingham South’ is a little more compact than the other two, and gave a blanket 4 MP approval to Labour, only Northfield was a gain from the Conservatives, but their vote was generally in the 30s %. Northfield was the best Reform showing, but they didn’t show as well in the other three. Hall Green and Moseley had Independents in 2nd and 3rd place. A Labour MP here is a certainty and they would be competitive for a 2nd. The Tories would probably have to settle for 1 MP on the 2024 results. The other 1 or 2 would be anyone’s guess. It could depend on whether a strong independent could spread their appeal across all 4 parts.
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These predictions are not getting any easier, definitely giving me Food for Thought