STV for North East Scotland

From Fife upwards

The area just north of the Central belt gets two STV constituencies, then the ‘North East Proper’ gets two more.

Aberdeenshire (to elect 5 MPs, covering the current constituencies of            Aberdeen North; Aberdeen South;   Aberdeenshire North and Moray East;            Gordon and Buchan;  West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine)

Dundee and Angus (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of             Angus and Perthshire Glens; Arbroath and Broughty Ferry; Dundee Central )

Fife (to elect 4 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy; Dunfermline and Dollar; Glenrothes and Mid Fife; North East Fife  )

Perth & Stirling (to elect 3 MPs, covering the current constituencies of Alloa and Grangemouth; Perth and Kinross-shire; Stirling and Strathallan )

The Geography

Aberdeenshire makes natural sense as an STV constituency, even though it combines one city with a large rural area. Historically, the FPTP boundaries have shifted frequently, particularly for the Gordon constituency, but under STV, the entire region can be joined together.

Fife, known as the "Kingdom of Fife," also makes sense as an STV constituency. However, recent boundary changes mean the town of Dollar is now part of Fife, even though historically it hasn’t been. Fife gets 4 MPs, which reminds me of half of a famous Scottish football result (that may or may not have happened—I’d have to check).

Dundee and Angus unite one of Scotland’s other major cities with its surrounding areas. Dundee itself used to have two FPTP constituencies but the areas now left out of a ‘Dundee’ seat are now in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry so my STV suggestion reunites them. The Perthshire Glens reach into the heart of the Highlands, including Ben Lawers, my favorite Munro of the six I’ve climbed. There are more voters in Dundee than on the summit of Ben Lawers - which I had to myself!

Finally, the Perth & Stirling constituency covers the cities of Stirling and Perth, with a wedge of the Southern Highlands, including the southernmost - and my first - Munro, Ben Lomond! And yes, I know this is meant to be a politics ‘blog’

The third part of this constituency, Alloa and Grangemouth, dips below the start of the Forth estuary, with just one bridge connecting its two parts. While Alloa is a good fit with Stirling and Perth, Grangemouth would fit better with Falkirk, but it stays in place following the Boundary Commission’s choices.

The Politics

Aberdeenshire

In the Aberdeenshire seat, which has 5 MPs on offer, it’s likely the seat could be split between 4 parties. The SNP would likely secure two MPs, while the Liberal Democrats, who once had a strong presence here, are at risk of losing out. The 2024 election saw the SNP gain one seat, but it was more a case which of the two struggling parties—the SNP or Conservatives—could lose the least votes. Aberdeen City remained SNP despite significant swings to Labour, and in the rural areas, the old Liberal Democrat heartlands would need to reawaken if they hope to win a seat.

Dundee and Angus

Dundee and Angus still had blanket SNP representation in 2024 under FPTP, but Labour were hot on their tails in two of these constituencies, so would have been certain to have 1 STV MP here now. The SNP would probably take the other two though the Conservatives could challenge for the second one if their vote recovers.

Fife

Fife was one of the SNP’s worst results in 2024, with Labour taking three seats from them. Before that election, the SNP nominally held all four seats, though that is based on nominal results, and in fact the North East Fife MP was Wendy Chamberlain of the Liberal Democrats. An STV election here would likely depend on whether the Liberal Democrats can attract enough votes or second preferences in the other three parts where they are weak. Otherwise, the seats would likely be split between Labour and the SNP, with at least one Labour gain from the SNP in 2024.

Perth & Stirling

Perth and Stirling would probably maintain its 2024 representation under STV, with Labour holding 2 seats and Pete Wishart of the SNP securing the third.

While Wishart faced his closest challenge in Perth and Kinross-shire from a Conservative, I predict there aren’t enough Conservative voters across the whole area for them to hold a seat now. That could change in a future election if their vote improves.

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Given Pete Wishart’s musical history, it’s only fitting that I end this post with one of my favorite bands!